The race to lead Labour into the next election has begun

On the Whitehall grapevine, Wes Streeting is seen as a rare success story for the government: a good communicator who is starting to deliver the change Keir Starmer promised.

- ANDREW GRICE

The chatter in Streeting's health department predicts his next stop will be 10 Downing Street. However, the health secretary might face an uphill battle to win over the Labour grassroots in the “one member, one vote” ballot that chooses the party’s leader. Even some of his admirers suspect he might be too right wing, or “Blairite”, for many of them.

Whitehall officials are less flattering about other cabinet ministers. Rachel Reeves’s autumn Budget is described by some as her “last shot”. In other words, if she can’t break out of the doom loop of “one-off” tax rises to meet her fiscal rules, followed by exactly the same medicine in her next Budget, Starmer might be looking for a new chancellor next year.

The prime minister is not immune to speculation about his future. Even his allies admit he cannot afford a repeat of his bad first year on the domestic front. “Another crisis like the welfare climbdown and it would surely be curtains,” one Labour MP told me. Angela Rayner told last month’s meeting of Labour’s national executive committee: “Announcements are not enough: people have to see real improvements in their lives, soon.” Significantly, the deputy prime minister added: “The next 12 months will decide whether Labour wins a second term.”

She wasn’t talking behind Starmer’s back; he was in the room.