Spike in cyberattacks could be a prelude to the 'big one'

A perfect storm’ for hackers has impacted millions across the UK this year. Anthony Cuthbertson investigates the recent surge and how the worst-case scenario might play out

- Anthony Cuthbertson

Standing aboard an aircraft carrier in New York’s Hudson River in 2012, US defence secretary Leon Panetta warned of a looming attack that would “paralyse and shock the nation”. It would not come via air, land or sea, he said, but through the internet.

“A cyberattack perpetrated by nation states or violent extremist groups could be as destructive as the terrorist attack on 9/11,” he claimed, citing a recent spate of high-profile hacks that had exposed the fragility of an increasingly digitised critical infrastructure.

“They could derail passenger trains, or even more dangerous, derail trains loaded with lethal chemicals,” he continued. “They could contaminate the water supply in major cities, or shut down the power grid across large parts of the country.”

His speech marked a new era of cyberwarfare and a fundamental change in the way countries and corporations approached cybersecurity. It was also the first time such a senior figure had publicly recognised the existential threat of hackers, who were capable of pulling off what would come to be known as “the big one”.

The dire scenarios Panetta anticipated have since been the plots of Hollywood movies and TV shows – including Netflix’s 2025 blockbuster Zero Day – yet no real-world attacks have thankfully come close.

Cyber incursions have instead been far more insidious, typically focused on individuals or organisations rather than entire industries. In recent months, however, they have been ramping up to record levels.