Reform support ‘tops out’ in blow to Farage’s PM hopes

Leading pollster warns over recent by-election defeats

- DAVID MADDOX

A leading pollster has suggested that support for Reform UK has “topped out”, and that the momentum that was carrying the party up in the polls has ground to a halt.

Conservative peer Robert Hayward has told The Independent that the results of recent council by-elections in which Reform lost while defending seats, coupled with a small fall in the party's polling figures, suggest that the march of Nigel Farage to Downing Street at the next general election could be facing a setback.

It comes after business leaders and senior figures in the Labour Party urged Sir Keir Starmer to “stop obsessing” about Reform.

The analysis follows two by-elections last week in which Reform lost council seats it was defending for the first time. Many pollsters are looking at council by-election results as a more accurate indicator of the state of political parties than the opinion polls themselves.