Now we know that tactical voting can derail Farage

Well, you can't say Reform UK didn't do everything they could to win the Caerphilly by-election.

- SEAN O'GRADY

And they were, as party chair David Bull admits, disappointed by the result. By the way, Reform also failed to win its usual clutch of local council elections around England. From the Fenlands to Torridge to Birmingham, the Farageistes were, for a change, pinned back.

One might be tempted to wonder if Reform is running out of momentum, and has - dread phrase - “peaked too early”. That temptation is also premature. “Reform will be disappointed at coming second with 36 per cent,” said the pollster John Curtice, “but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”

Much can change. Reform may have to get used to tasting defeat from time to time - even if they have become an established fact of political life, and will continue to top national opinion polls for some time. Despite the plethora of polls around, it’s worth pointing out that a British general election is still some years away.

Reform expected to win here, and this is a stumble. In the Runcorn Westminster by-election earlier this year, they stormed in and won one of the safest Labour seats in the country, albeit by six votes. Their victories in the traditionally Tory English county councils were a revolution, even if almost taken for granted. The Conservatives were declared dead by the latest defector to Reform, Nadine Dorries, and few quibbled. It was Nigel Farage himself who declared that they were now coming after Labour. Not in South Wales, boys.