No ceasefire can survive in this catalogue of paradoxes

Could there be a temporary Gaza ceasefire and partial hostage deal in the next days or weeks? Yes.

- ALON PINKAS

Would it lead to the end of the war and a “postwar Gaza” structure? No. Why? For a multitude of reasons, but the overarching and overriding one is that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want to end the war.

He is infatuated with his “wartime leader” status, convinced that he is drastically remodelling the Middle East geopolitical landscape in Gaza, Iran and elsewhere. And for his political interests and expediency, he needs to perpetuate a war and emergency atmosphere.

The New York Times Magazine just published a comprehensive and detailed account of how Netanyahu has been prolonging the war since early 2024. By all indications, this policy trajectory continues and applies to both Gaza and to a future, second strike against Iran, as Netanyahu himself attested during his visit to Washington last week.

How does this affect the chances of a ceasefire? The endless talk and abundant speculation of an imminent Gaza ceasefire has become tragically tedious and predictable, with each day bringing a combination of reasons why a deal is just around the corner and the caveat that it won’t last.