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Kyiv faces a 'hammer blow' as Russians amass in Kursk

The Independent

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November 15, 2024

Experts explain that a force of 50,000 suggests Putin wants to take back Russian territory ahead of Trump's inauguration

- ANDY GREGORY, TOM WATLING

Kyiv faces a 'hammer blow' as Russians amass in Kursk

After months spent occupying a swathe of territory in Russia in the wake of a daring summer assault, Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Ukraine is now engaged against a force of 50,000 troops amassed by Vladimir Putin in the border Kursk region.

The Ukrainian incursion was the largest on Russian soil since the Second World War and succeeded in taking Moscow – and even Kyiv’s closest allies – by surprise.

But despite Ukrainian troops’ success in bedding into positions deep into Kursk, the offensive received a mixed reaction from analysts, with some questioning the wisdom of drawing vital defensive power away from the fight in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where Mr Putin’s forces have been making steady, grinding gains for months.

With top Ukrainian officials revealing to The Independent in August that they viewed the Kursk offensive as a vital “psychological” tool to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, Kyiv’s forces have succeeded in holding out in Kursk far longer than some analysts initially expected.

However, Moscow is now pushing to retake the territory. Following reports that thousands of North Korean troops have been stationed in Kursk, Ukraine’s military has claimed that Russia has suffered two consecutive days of record losses – suggesting the fight is gaining a new intensity.

imageAndrew Perpetua, who tracks Russian losses on the front line, told The Independent that he has already seen missing-in-action reports for the Kursk attack this week being published by families. Usually, he said, this would take two to three weeks.

While the reasons for this sudden speed are not certain, he suggested, “it could be that so many died that the chances of finding this low probability event went up”.

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