Inflation is down - so why is it that your weekly food shop gets more expensive?

Hannah Twiggs looks at the factors turning the supermarket sweep into the barometer of Britain's cost of living crisis

- Hannah Twiggs

If you only skim the headlines, you might think the cost of living crisis is neatly wrapping itself up.

UK inflation has finally dipped to 3.6 per cent, down from 3.8 and the first fall in five months. Markets are betting on rate cuts and somewhere, a Treasury press officer is polishing off the phrase “turning a corner”.

But your weekly shop hasn’t got the memo. Food and drink inflation has risen to 4.9 per cent. At the start of 2025, it was 3.3 per cent, and by some calculations, food prices have jumped about 25 per cent in just two years, roughly the same increase we saw in the 13 years before that. The Bank of England (BoE) notes that even at 4.5 per cent in September, food inflation is still about three times its pre-Covid norm of around 1.5 per cent.

This isn’t about one bad harvest or greedy supermarkets trying to make good on previous losses. Look a little closer and a much more complex picture emerges. So, what are the real issues causing such astronomical price hikes?

The meat problem

Nowhere is the squeeze more visible than in the meat aisle. Parliament’s own research shows beef and veal prices up a staggering 24.9 per cent year on year in August. Butter was up 18.9 per cent, whole milk 15.5 per cent. A simple roast dinner has quietly turned into a small luxury.

Globally, beef prices have hit record levels. Years of drought and high feed prices, especially in the US, have shrunk cattle herds to their lowest levels in more than seven decades; rebuilding them will take years, not months.