India's economy is booming but has it overtaken Japan?

Economists eee the fourth-largest claim is jumping the gun

- SHWETA SHARMA

A top Indian official claims the country has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, in what would be a significant symbolic milestone. But while the comment has been seized upon with glee in India, experts say the celebrations may be premature.

The claim came from BVR Subrahmanyam, chief of the Indian government’s public policy think tank Niti Aayog. He told a televised press briefing on Sunday: “We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a $4 trillion economy as I speak, and this is not my data. This is IMF data,” he said. “India today is larger than Japan.”

He went on to claim that India was on course to displace Germany as the third-largest economy, placing it behind only the US and China, in about three years. “It is only the US, China and Germany which are larger than India and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5-3 years, we will be the third-largest economy,” Subrahmanyam said.

Many reports in India have taken the claims at face value, but analysts who spoke to The Independent urged caution, pointing out that they appear to be based on projections from the IMF, not current data. Even if this milestone is reached, they say, it should not distract from the fact that there are deep-rooted socioeconomic issues and gaping disparities in the country.

India, which aspires to be a superpower by 2050, is projected by the IMF to overtake Japan in 2026 and Germany the following year. Subrahmanyam’s claim that it is already the fourth-largest economy isn’t accurate, however, at least according to the body’s current figures. For now, India remains the world’s fifth-largest economy by GDP.