How will the chancellor fill this welfare black hole?

Taken together, the cost to the public finances of recent reversals on welfare payments is estimated to be around 4.5bn.

- SEAN O'GRADY

Restoration of the pensioners' winter fuel payment for most recipients will cost some £1.2bn, while keeping the present arrangements on personal independence payment and the health element of universal credit will mean the chancellor loses some £2.1bn and £1.1bn, respectively.

While these aren't catastrophic changes in a total public spending universe of about £1.3 trillion, Rachel Reeves allowed herself very little fiscal headroom.

So she'll be looking to make up for the cost of the recent Uturns. Given that she's only just delivered a spending review that set out plans for the next three years, including tighter budgets for many government departments, she is reportedly more willing to consider tax hikes. The uncertain outlook for economic growth will make her even more cautious. Despite constraints, she has some options.

What won't Rachel Reeves do?

All the signs are that she won't make any further changes that could be interpreted as a direct contravention of the 2024 general election manifesto promise: "We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible. Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT." The 2 per cent hike in employers' national insurance at the last Budget hit smaller businesses quite hard, and will affect wage rises, so it was very close to the letter of that pledge. She's not going to go there again. But bear in mind that the freeze on tax thresholds will remain in place until 2028 - a hidden rise in income tax for many.

Is anything else ruled out?