How Putin will pounce if he achieves victory in Ukraine

World affairs editor Sam Kiley has been covering the region since Russia took Crimea in 2014. He looks at the state of the war, likelihood of a lasting ceasefire and Moscow's next step

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Dismissing Vladimir Putin's offer of a brief ceasefire in May as yet "another attempt at manipulation" is an understatement.

The Russian president is, according to the former head of MI6, intent on taking much more than just Ukraine.

Far from being worried by recent mini-threats from Donald Trump to increase sanctions or stung by the US president's irritation at Russia's stalling over a ceasefire, Putin is cupping his ears in a pantomime of attention and carrying on doing as he pleases.

Such behaviour chimes with the uncharacteristically stark message from ex-spy chief Sir Alex Younger who, after a lifetime in the shadows of espionage, has a simple message: "If you don't stand up to him, he comes back for more how many more times do we need to be told this?" Putin's latest play is a three-day ceasefire from Thursday to mark the Russian anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. His last Easter ceasefire was ignored by his own troops. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky has, again, called his bluff by asking for an unconditional cessation of hostilities while wider talks get underway.

But that idea has been hobbled by American negotiators who have already adopted most of Russia's aims as first principles ahead of any talks. Lately these have, again, included repeated statements by Trump that Crimea, captured by Russia in 2014, was a lost cause for Kyiv.

Zelensky will be buoyed by the signing of a minerals deal with Trump after a flurry of diplomacy between Kyiv and Washington, ensuring that the US has some financial skin in the game when it comes to the future of his country.