How 2025 could see Putin inch closer to his war aims

With a Russian apologist about to return to the White House, Keir Giles describes how he believes Putin will use the new US president to accelerate his goal of European domination

- Keir Giles

Ordinarily, it's historians writing after the fact that identify the pivotal dates in wars when the road to victory or defeat becomes clear. Russia's war on Ukraine is different: it is clear in advance that 20 January 2025 will change the course of the conflict.

Since well before the US election, there has been no doubt that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could be decisive for Ukraine’s continuing ability to resist Russia’s onslaught.

It’s long been apparent that the outcome of the war will be decided far from the battlefields in the east and south of the country, and in fact, not in Ukraine at all. Both Russia and Ukraine are supported by coalitions of nations whose contributions to their respective war efforts are crucial. The key difference is that in Ukraine’s case, the biggest backer by volume may be about to pull the rug from under the country’s feet, crippling its ability to continue in its struggle to survive.

Trump’s promise to bring peace to Ukraine within a day of arriving in power has been often repeated, but never explained. A number of different possible plans have been put forward. But none of them fully lays out how it will be possible to convince Ukraine to cease resistance without solid and unarguable means of deterring Russia from resuming hostilities when it feels it is ready.

These so-called “security guarantees” are essential if any ceasefire is to mean a durable peace, rather than an opportunity for Russia to reconstitute its land forces even faster without Ukraine eliminating them almost as swiftly as they can be restored.

The best available security guarantee – membership of Nato for however much of Ukraine remains free – has been ruled off the table by the alliance’s leading, and most timorous, members. And any mention of a possible presence of troops from Western countries in Ukraine, to ensure that peace is kept, sends European capitals into a panicked flurry of denials.