Fall in birth rate of England and Wales is highest of G7

The fertility rate for England and Wales has plummeted to a record low after falling for three consecutive years, data from the Office for National Statistics reveals, with births barely outpacing deaths.

- ALICJA HAGOPIAN

The total fertility rate - defined as the average number of children women would expect to have across their childbearing life – stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023 and the lowest since records began in 1938.

Natural population growth has been in decline for years, with deaths expected to overtake births by 2030, but migration into England and Wales has offset an otherwise dwindling population, which means that it grew by around 706,000 in the year to mid-2024. Births last year actually increased slightly, from 591,072 to 594,677, but overall population growth meant fertility rates still fell.

Despite already dropping more than any other G7 nation since 2010, the ONS projects that fertility rates will continue to drop and stagnate at a low level of 1.41 in 2027. The UK's fertility rates are still higher than Japan, Canada and Italy.