£98 FOR A TURKEY?

Bird flu is ripping through flocks, harvests have collapsed and supply chains are fragile. Hannah Twiggs explains why your festive grocery bill is likely to be through the roof this year

- 

Christmas dinner has always survived on blind faith: that the turkey will appear, the veg will behave and the nation will briefly agree that sprouts are edible. But this year that faith is being tested.

Last week, one customer blanched when her high street butcher told her that her usual 5kg turkey order would be £98 - up from £78 last Christmas. She blinked, assumed it was a mistake, and was met with an apologetic shrug and something mumbled about avian flu. Paying her deposit, she left with a turkey-sized hole in her festive budget - a Christmas story that is now being played out at supermarket meat counters and butchers up and down the country.

The traditional Christmas dinner isn't just under pressure - it's starting to look like historical fiction.

Turkeys on the brink

The UK is in the middle of a grim bird flu season, with around 50 confirmed cases since October and 300,000 birds - about 5 per cent of the UK's Christmas poultry flock - already culled. Organic and free-range producers are being hit hardest, and regulations now mean many flocks are indoors whether they like it or not.

Every new case is a potential catastrophe for farmers. One warned that a single outbreak on his farm could wipe out as many as 10,000 Christmas lunches in one go. Even without infection, producers are processing birds early, which is why you're more likely to be offered a modest crown than a four-kilo centrepiece.

Supermarkets will probably muddle through - they tend to lock in supply months ahead, even if that means swallowing thinner margins - but independents and butchers are more exposed.