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What the data says Do asylum seekers commit crimes at a higher rate?

The Guardian

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December 15, 2025

It is a familiar pattern in news coverage of recent months: a horrific, often sexual, crime is committed by an asylum seeker or foreign national.

- Haroon Siddique Michael Goodier

A flurry of headlines and commentary follows, suggesting that men from the country, ethnic group or religion in question have a propensity to commit these types of offence. A common theme was crystallised by the Daily Mail's Sarah Vine on Wednesday after two Afghan asylum seekers were jailed for raping a 15-year-old girl: "For too long this country has ignored the reality of what happens when men from certain cultures are let loose in our liberal democracy."

Increasingly, politicians express outrage too, not just at the offence itself - but at the immigration status of the perpetrator. They repeat pledges to make it harder for people to enter the country illegally.

Sometimes those commenting claim to be backed by statistics. But more often it is anecdotal, the preponderance of news stories themselves held up as evidence, accompanied by numerous police mugshots of brown or black men.

Vine also wrote: "I don't care if I'm accused of scaremongering, or worse. Facts are facts." But the truth is the evidence is complex and often absent from official data.

It is true, for example, that Afghan nationals offend in the UK at a higher rate than British nationals - but the difference has been exaggerated, and does not account for the difference in demographics between the two groups in the UK.

While lists of crimes committed by foreign nationals create one impression, a similar list could be created of violent offences by white British men that would create another, but rarely attract coverage focused on ethnicity. And while offending rates may be higher among some immigrant groups, it is also true that if you are a victim of a violent or sexual crime in the UK, the available evidence suggests that the ethnic makeup of the country means that the perpetrator is most likely to be a white man.

What does the data say overall?

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