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War brought dramatic political shifts across Middle East. More are likely on the road to peace

The Guardian

|

October 20, 2025

If the war in Gaza had dramatic consequences across the Middle East, overturning long-held assumptions, resetting the geopolitical map and provoking massive shifts in public opinion, any durable peace is likely to have equally momentous effects.

- Jason Burke

War brought dramatic political shifts across Middle East. More are likely on the road to peace

Some counsel caution.

"I think after such bloodshed and destruction it will take some time to move in any positive direction," said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University.

The way the war ended has already changed regional politics.

Efforts to counter Trump’s ill-received "Riviera" plan for Gaza earlier this year brought regional powers together in a new way. This has now moved up a gear. Rapid implementation of Trump’s 20-point plan is forcing rivals to set aside differences and collaborate very closely under significant pressure, after years of competition across the Middle East.

Reaching an agreement on the first phase of the plan depended on US pressure on Israel but also Qatar and Turkey leaning heavily on Hamas.

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