The stakes What election in US will mean for the war

The year since the 7 October attack has demonstrated just how densely intertwined US presidential politics is with the trajectory of events in the Middle East. Each exerts a gravitational pull on the other, often in ways that are damaging for both.

- Julian Borger

Foreign policy rarely matters much in US presidential elections, but this year could be an exception. In a contest likely to be decided by small margins in a handful of states, the fallout from the conflicts in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, with a potential war with Iran looming, could have a significant impact.

On the other side of the coin, the outcome of the election on 5 November will affect the Middle East in unpredictable but potentially momentous ways. Despite the clear limits on Washington's ability to control Israel, its closest partner, the US remains by far the most influential external power in the region.

Joe Biden's steadfast support for Israel in the face of mass civilian casualties in Gaza, and Benjamin Netanyahu's clear defiance of US-led efforts to establish ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, have alienated many progressive Democrats.

Harris has not distanced herself significantly from Biden's Middle East policy and faces a particularly tough fight in Michigan, home to a sizable Arab-American community. Losing that state would considerably complicate her path to the presidency.