The nightly blitz Can Ukraine survive Russia's drone onslaught?

Night by night, the blitz develops. Russian drones, decoys, cruise and ballistic missiles - increasingly aimed at a single city or location - are launched in record numbers into Ukraine, straining the country's ability to defend itself and raising questions about how well it can endure another winter of war.

- Dan Sabbagh

One day this month, 728 drones and 13 missiles were launched, mostly at the western city of Lutsk, home to many Ukrainian airfields. Large salvoes come more frequently: every three to five days, rather than every 10 to 12, and civilian casualties are rising: 232 people were killed in June, the highest monthly level for three years.

A German major general, Christian Freuding, has predicted that the Kremlin's ambition is to attack Ukraine with "2,000 drones simultaneously".

Production of drones and missiles has increased, as have Russian tactics. Not only are the drones unleashed in larger swarms, with dozens of decoys included, but they are also being flown either much lower or at much higher altitudes, sometimes in a stack to fool the defenders before swooping down steeply to their target. The additional height takes them beyond the range of mobile Ukrainian gunners, whose job has been to shoot them down, relatively cheaply.

Analyses of Ukrainian air force data show more drones are getting through: from close to 5% in March and April to between 15% and 20% in May and June. Russia is using its Shahed drones more intelligently, analysts say, to open a path for faster and more dangerous cruise and ballistic missiles because damage from the 50kg (110lb) explosive normally carried by a Shahed is relatively limited.