On the frontline Moscow thinks it is winning - and it can string the talks along

For Ukraine, the break in the frontline is unfortunately timed. Lightly armed Russian saboteur groups—three on one count—cut through Ukrainian positions in the Donbas countryside east of the key junction at Dobropillia. Though one group was eliminated by Tuesday, two were thought to remain at large—and although their numbers are small for now, perhaps 20 to 30, the breach is significant.

- Dan Sabbagh

At the beginning of April, it was safe to visit Dobropillia, which had become a bustling market center busy with soldiers and locals, nearly 15 miles north of the frontline in Pokrovsk. But since then, the town, where once-busy supply roads from Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk split, has come under sustained attack with glide bombs while FPV (first-person view) drones strike targets on the move.

It is part of an increasingly coordinated battle strategy by the invaders. Experts say Russia has become more effective at targeting Ukrainian drone teams in the field and forces on the move. Even before the weekend, the southerly T0514 supply road to Kramatorsk was already at risk of attack, while a Russian military blogger described "the systematic elimination" of Ukrainian crews.

At the same time, Ukraine's forces appear to be increasingly stretched. Critics such as Bohdan Krotevych, a former chief of staff at the Azov brigade, say too much attention has been focused on infantry counterstrikes in Pokrovsk—"a soap bubble that will soon burst"—and not enough on augmenting defenses to hold existing lines.