High risk' of Scotland missing 2045 net zero target, data reveals

Scotland is likely to miss its legally binding climate target by up to 20m tonnes, according to official data seen by the Guardian.

- Severin Carrell

The Scottish government set itself the world-leading target of reaching net zero - where any excess carbon emissions are soaked up by trees, peat or carbon capture - by 2045.

Successive first ministers, including Nicola Sturgeon and the incumbent, John Swinney, have repeatedly described Scotland as a world leader on climate and stated their "unwavering" commitment to hit that target. But internal official assessments say Scotland is highly unlikely to do so without a massive increase in spending on new forests, peatland restoration and farming reform, and a substantial reliance on untested or expensive machinery to take CO2 out of the air.

One report, written for Scottish ministers by the firm that compiles the UK's greenhouse emissions inventory, states "there is a very high risk" Scotland will miss that target by 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e).