Canny timing by the militants has taken advantage of Russian and Iranian distraction

It was not Kyiv that fell in three days, but Aleppo. A surprise offensive launched by Syrian rebels from the north-west of the country last week has reignited a dormant conflict - and revealed a change in the balance of power caused not by one but two nearby wars, in Ukraine and Lebanon and the Middle East.

- Dan Sabbagh

Aleppo was the scene of fierce fighting between 2012 and 2016 when the Syrian civil war was at its height. Rebel groups were forced out as forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad were able to capture the country's second city, with the help of Russia and its air force. The Idlib region in the north-west, with a population of about 5 million, remained outside Assad's grip, however. An intervention by Turkey in 2020, propped up the position of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist Sunni group.

A ceasefire had held since March 2020, but Assad's backers have been weakened, and with it the Syrian regime. An attack that began on Wednesday forced a hurried retreat by government forces and by Saturday the city appeared to be in rebel hands, a reminder of the elementary military effectiveness of surprise.