Get out of jail? Why convicted felon Trump is likely to avoid prison time

A Manhattan jury convicted Donald Trump on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush-money case.

- Sam Levine

The immediate question is: what punishment should the former US president receive?

The decision rests entirely with Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case. The crimes Trump has been found guilty of, falsifying business records in the first degree, are class E felonies in New York, the least serious category, and punishable by up to four years in prison.

Sentencing is set for 11 July. But Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison, experts say. He is a firsttime offender, and the crime he has been found guilty of is a non-violent paper crime.

"I think the judge would probably not incarcerate him under those circumstances alone," said Cheryl Bader, a law professor at Fordham University who called any sentence of incarceration "unlikely".

"But also given that he is a former president, has a Secret Service detail and is also the presumptive Republican nominee, I think a term of incarceration would be logistically very difficult, but also would have political implications that I think Judge Merchan would want to avoid."

Any punishment is likely to consist of fines, probation, community service or a combination of those. "I would like to see community service - picking up trash on the subway," said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney's office.