A U.S.-Iran-Israel Conflagration and What It Means for the World and India

On the Edge:

- IRFAN ATTARI KASHMIR

The crisis began with a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting military and civilian sites in Syria, Lebanon, and reportedly even Iran.

In response, Tehran issued one of its strongest threats in years: it might block the Strait of Hormuz, the vital route through which about 20 to 25 percent of global oil supplies pass daily. On June 18, during a meeting of the International Maritime Organization, Iran accused Israel of endangering petrochemical facilities, while Israel claimed Iran was supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen. The United States has openly increased its naval and aerial presence, reaffirming its commitment to defending maritime trade. It has also warned Iran against disrupting shipping routes. Iran, however, sees these movements as provocations, interpreting them through its asymmetric defense approach, which includes fast boats, drones, and sea mines.

Timeline of Escalation

April 15: Israeli airstrike hits a weapons depot near Damascus.

May 3: The U.S. sends a carrier strike group and B-52 bombers to the Gulf amid reports of an Iranian plot.

May 17: Iran states it will "firmly respond" to further Israeli strikes and threatens to disrupt Hormuz.

June 13-16: Analysts report a 9 percent rise in Brent crude oil prices as tensions heighten; several vessels change their routes.

June 18: Accusations fly at the IMO as two vessels collide near the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy Markets and the Chokepoint Threat

Experts warn that even the mere possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz can cause instability in global oil markets. With shipping insurance premiums rising sharply, Brent crude prices temporarily spiked before stabilizing at higher levels. Global energy agencies estimate that around 20 million barrels of oil per day—nearly a quarter of maritime oil—pass through the Strait, mostly heading to Asia, including India and China.