Impeachment hinges on election results

Filipinos who are using their coconuts know that both BBM and VP Sara are staking their necks in the upcoming elections because the winners shall join the incumbent senators in voting guilty or not guilty in the impending impeachment trial of the vice president.

- Atty. Josephus B. Jimenez

If the administration's Alyansa isn't able to muster at least 16 or two-thirds of 24 members of the next Senate, then the Palace should say goodbye to conviction. Should the Dutertes succeed in having at least seven votes to acquit, that means those who vote for a verdict of guilty will only be 15, one vote shy of the 16 votes needed to convict. It's much easier for the Dutertes to get seven votes than for the Palace to muster 16 votes.

If Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa and Willy Revillame win, and if Imee Marcos, Camille Villar, and Philip Salvador don't, then I predict Sara will surely be found not guilty. Impeachment isn't a game of evidence but a contest of numbers. It isn't a judicial proceedings where the burden of proof and the quantum of evidence are very difficult to attain. Impeachment is a political exercise. The side with the numbers wins. Guilt or innocence is secondary.

With due respect, I believe that, regardless of whatever evidence is presented, the following are expected to vote not guilty: Go, Dela Rosa (assuming he won't be in The Hague by June 2025), Revillame, Marcos, Villar, and Salvador, (assuming they win). That means six votes are for acquittal.