The Indus Waters Treaty: Stalemate by Strategy

A treaty flows, but tensions run deep.

- TDG NETWORK

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), at one point considered a model of cooperation between enemies, now hangs in a calculated state of limbo. Legal nuances, shifting geopolitics, and the constant threat of cross-border terrorism have all been factors in its current stalemate. For India, the moment is both a strategic chance to reassess the accord and also a dilemma over how hard to lean.

Why India Hasn't Walked Away Yet

According to top government sources, India's current position, stalling but not walking away from the treaty is a deliberate, tactical move. It's aimed at keeping diplomatic pressure on while steering clear of the consequences of a total abrogation.

Legally, the framework of the treaty does not enable unilateral suspension. Article XII(4) of the agreement provides that the treaty is operative "until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose." Accordingly, since India hasn't formally rescinded the agreement, Pakistan can't hold it guilty of default.

As one Indian senior official put it, "It's a treaty without an exit ramp. That's by design but it doesn't reflect the current reality of state-sponsored terrorism."

India's Legal Safeguards