IS IT THE END OF TWO-STATE SOLUTION?: ISRAEL- HAMAS'S NEVER ENDING CONFLICT

The outcome of the war in Gaza is already clear. Israel is so strong relative to Hamas that it can both defeat Hamas and establish almost any new security structure in Gaza that Israel wants.

- DR. S. KRISHNAN, DEVRANJAN SHEKHAWAT & HIMIKA SHARMA

It does face limited threat from attacks by Palestinians in Israel and in the West Bank, but they are unlikely to rise above sporadic incidents of violence. In practice, Israel will be able to create almost any security structure in Gaza that it wants to limit Palestinian action in Israel and the West Bank to demonstrations and small acts of violence or terrorism.

As for the rest of the Arab world, Israel does not seem to face any major direct military threat from its Arab neighbors. Lebanon is in chaos. Hezbollah can raise the ante in terms of missile attacks and cross-border infiltration but is vulnerable to far superior Israeli air and missile attacks. Egypt is strong in military terms but is no longer organized and prepared to fight Israel and is caught up in its own economic crisis and political problems. Jordan now has only limited military forces, is not organized to fight Israel, and has its own internal economic and political challenges.

The Arab Gulf states may provide some aid, money, and political support, but they will continue to focus on Iran and not take any serious military action or risk a major political confrontation with Israel or split with the United States.

FOUR ENCLAVES INSTEAD OF TWO STATES

As Hamas's invasion demonstrates, Israel's most serious current threat is internal and, to some extent, self-inflicted. It is driven by Israel's failure to offer Palestinians either real statehood or security and equal economic and political opportunity. Instead of statehood, Palestinians are divided into four Israeli-controlled enclaves, each with different causes of tension between Israel and the Palestinians and somewhat different pressures on its resident Palestinians.