BIHAR'S VERDICT, DECODED: WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY—AND WHAT THEY'LL CHANGE

Bihar’s verdict was shaped by welfare gains and anger over prices, youth joblessness, a reworked NDA caste-plus-women coalition, and a weak third front.

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NDA leaders launched Bihar poll manifesto on Oct 31.

Bihar has spoken. Five years after a razor-thin contest produced a hung Assembly, India’s third-most populous state has delivered a thunderous verdict. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — the coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) — has smashed its own record. With 208 of the 243 seats in thestate legislature, the NDA hastakena victory moreem-phatic than its2020 showing of 122 seats. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) — the opposition bloc of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and Left parties — has been reduced to28 seats, a collapse from the 114 it held in the outgoing House. Seven seats havegone toindependentsor smaller outfits. The majority mark of 122 is far behind in the rear-view mirror.

This landslide wasnot only about seats. Exit-poll chatter had suggested a close fight; on counting day the signal was clear. Provisional turnout figures from the Election Commission showed 66.91% polling across two phases — the highest in the state since 1951, with women outvoting men by nearly nine points. An analysis by the Times of India suggests the NDA garnered nearly 49 % of the popular vote while the MGB drew around 38 %. The NDA’s coalition managed totranslate this lead into an astounding seat haul by winning tight contests across the map.

Clear majority. The NDAXs208 seatsare almost 1.7 times the majority requirement. This gives Nitish Kumar an unprecedented fifth term with a cabinet he can control withouthaving to bargain for survival. Conversely, the opposition is decimated — the RJDis poised to slip below the statutory requirement for Leader of the Opposition status. The verdict therefore signals a mandate for continuity with a double-engine (stateand Centre of the same party) model.