SA in pit of policy uncertainty

RECORD HIGH: IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND INVESTMENT

- Ina Opperman

Despite all the little steps the country takes to increase economic growth, policy uncertainty continues to fall in negative territory.

This is due to a combination of negative global and internal factors outweighing the positive in the Policy Uncertainty Index.

According to North-West University (NWU) Business School's Policy Uncertainty Index for the third quarter of 2025, policy uncertainty went up to a record high of 81.0 (baseline 50) compared to 75.9 in the second quarter, further into negative territory.

The role of policy uncertainty has loomed large in much of the recent economic debate in South Africa and has important implications for business confidence and the investment climate in the country, Prof Raymond Parsons, economist at the NWU Business School, said.

The index is the net outcome of positive and negative factors influencing the calibration of policy uncertainty over the relevant period.

The index has three elements that show the following convergence:

► The media data reflected an increase in references to policy uncertainty;

► The survey of economists assessed policy uncertainty to be broadly unchanged for the second quarter; and

► The University of Stellenbosch's Bureau for Economic Research survey of manufacturers experiencing policy/political uncertainty was up from 80 to 85.

Policy uncertainty and the global economic outlook