The Reshaping of West Asia Now Sees a Potential Israeli-Turkish Competition

“Reshaped” can be used for describing West Asia since the fall of Assad in Syria.

- Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retd)

Introduction

With Hamas all but decimated, Hezbollah irreparably weakened, and Bashar al-Assad gone, the region has witnessed dramatic change. The main axis running from Iran through Syria to the Hezbollah in Lebanon has now been severed.

The two main beneficiaries of this ‘Reshaping’ are Israel and Turkey. Israel has taken advantage of the flux in Syria by occupying a small buffer zone, capturing Mount Hermon and targeting the Syrian Naval Fleet in Latakia in Syria. Further, it has gained an advantage to operate more freely in Lebanon.

Turkey, meanwhile, has established Syria as its de facto sphere of influence. The groups which it supported during the Syrian civil war have swept their way into Damascus and now control most of the country. There is no doubt that Turkey has successfully helped Syria’s Sunni majority overthrow Syria’s minority Alawites which were backed by Shia Iran and is now no doubt wanting to restore its leadership over the region in continuation of its Ottoman legacy as an Islamic world leader.

Turkey has been a long-term supporter of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which had early links to the Islamic State, and then to Al Qaeda. Without the HTS, Turkey could not have executed its takeover of Syria, hence it is now positioned to be the most influential outside actor in the country.

Are Israel and Turkey on a Collision Course?

Following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Israel, which is backed by the US, and Turkey, which is a NATO country, suddenly find themselves face to face in what could lead to a ‘collision course’ as per Yaroslav Trofimov in the Wall Street Journal. Managing this rivalry is going to be the next challenge.