Has China beaten US's tariffs threat amid trade war and its GDP growth?

On July 15, China's National Bureau of Statistics released its latest GDP growth figures for the first half of 2025, including the April-June quarter.

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China's economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter and 5.2% in the second, surpassing most analysts' expectations. These figures cover a period marked by significant upheaval in global trade due to the tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

To understand what these numbers mean for China's economy, The Indian Express spoke with Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow at the Center for China Analysis, Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington D.C., who offers valuable context and insight.

CHINA'S ECONOMY AND TRUMP'S TARIFFS

Not completely, but China has proven more resilient than many had anticipated. The reported 5.2% GDP growth and strong trade numbers reflect a combination of factors: front-loading exports before tariffs kicked in, adaptive supply chains, and targeted policy support by the Chinese government. However, this growth does not equate to a clean bill of health.

Many of the tariff impacts have been delayed. Businesses stockpiled goods, renegotiated supplier contracts, and benefited from a temporary truce reached between U.S. and Chinese officials in Geneva in May 2025. This 90-day tariff pause, set to expire on August 12, provided breathing room but is more of a temporary reprieve than a final victory for China.

The real test will come once these inventories run out and trade tensions potentially resume.

CHINESE DOMESTIC DEMAND