OPPURTUNITY TURNS TRAP

The tinderbox of growing anti-immigrant sentiment, the extreme nature of MAGA politics and bitter political wars along with mounting pressure on jobs for Americans combined together make H1B a sitting duck

- Jagdish Rattanani

The September 19 Presidential order imposing a fee of USD 100,000 per H1B visa entry and further changes in the entire process announced almost immediately thereafter are new assaults on an edifice that on the surface looked rock solid only a year ago.

The order in itself hits India hard even if that is not its intention, and will deliver shock, pain and a host of challenges that cannot hide behind empty bravado. The magnitude of the disruption, its potential to derail one of India’s largest employers, the vast IT services sector, and its likely impact on the wider economy give cause for worry.

Broadly, it has been estimated that the total H1B population with family and dependents in the US now is over one million. With an estimated three-quarters as Indians, this gives the magnitude of the problem and the India-centric nature of the disruption. India’s ministry of external affairs has correctly pointed out that the action will lead to “humanitarian consequences” for the workers and their families.

It is clear that even if existing workers are not impacted, their future remains in doubt as their H1Bs, issued for three years at a time, come up for renewal. Sudden announcements like these mar trust and will force a withdrawal of workers over time, with complex and unforeseen consequences.