LEARN FROM THE PAST

The cycle of rise and decline over the centuries has established some basic tenets of power, including that civilisations can still collapse even when they are set up for success. This lesson is relevant for today’s world, in which short-termism and populism risk derailing what should be a bright future

- Jacques Attali

Every generation believes that it is living in an unprecedented era with unique challenges.

But time and again, the same patterns and motivations have weakened and even destroyed civilisations, or strengthened them and enabled them to flourish. To learn from the past requires recognising its symmetries and resonances.

For example, the rise and decline of powers over the centuries has established some basic tenets. Chief among them is that when a dominant power faces two rivals, the rival that does not enter into conflict with the dominant power is usually the one that triumphs.

In the late 18th century, Great Britain prevailed over the Netherlands (the dominant power of the period), while France, the other contender, who went to war against the Netherlands, never became a superpower. In the early 20th century, the United States prevailed over Great Britain largely because of the wars between the United Kingdom and its other rival, Germany.

Another lesson is that empires collapse when they can no longer afford to finance the security of their hinterlands and trade routes. Spain’s Golden Age came to an end when it could no longer fund the military expenditure required to defend its colonies. Great Britain’s empire depended on naval supremacy that could not be maintained. The Soviet Union fell because it confused greatness with over-armament.