HEDGED GLOBALIZATION

The emergence of hedged globalization reflects most countries’ desire to be insulated from today’s superpower competition

- Yeling Tan

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs may have been “paused” almost immediately after their introduction in April — a reprieve just recently extended until 1 August, but they sent a clear message: countries around the world must adapt to a new era of coercive economic diplomacy.

Choosing sides in a superpower competition is not the approach most governments are taking.

For China, Trump’s actions ~ which have severely undermined trust in the United States —look like an opportunity to strengthen its global influence. To that end, the country has ramped up its charm offensive, with President Xi Jinping visiting Cambodia, Malaysia, and Vietnam - which China calls “victims” of US tariffs — to strike bilateral deals spanning health, technology, agriculture, and education.

China also lifted some sanctions against the European Union, which is reeling not only from Trump's tariffs, but also from his evident lack of commitment to NATO. And, in a meeting with his Nigerian counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledged to work with African countries to “reject protectionism,” “oppose ... bullying,” and defend “fairness and justice.” “China will provide certainty to this uncertain world,” Wang declared.

Many of these governments are not opposed to closer cooperation with China, and may welcome the opportunity to show the US that they have options. But there is little reason to expect the geostrategic swing towards China that Xi’s government is attempting to engineer. After all, China has its own record of coercive diplomacy.