IndiGo may see 10% revenue hit

A ten-day turmoil and a compulsory flight reduction will slam the financials of IndiGo, three equity analysts said, even as the regulator stepped up scrutiny of India's largest airline.

- Abhishek Law & Dipali Banka

IndiGo, they said, may witness a 10% decline in full-year revenue and a 17-30% lower profitability in FY26, as it makes a halting recovery from its biggest disruption.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) on Wednesday formed an eight member team to monitor IndiGo's daily operations, including two officials who will be stationed at the airline's Gurugram headquarters. The team will submit daily reports to the aviation regulator on IndiGo's fleet, average stage length, number of pilots, network details and crew utilization, among other details.

Despite a 10% cut in daily flights ordered on Tuesday, the airline may find it challenging to control costs, since it still needs more pilots. IndiGo shares are down 17% between 1 and 10 December.

"There's a flat 10% topline impact that we foresee now. The airline will continue to bear maintenance costs, lease payments and fuel costs. These will go up. So, the hit on Ebitda is around 30-35% for the full year," said Gagan Dixit, vice-president, oil & gas and aviation at Elara Capital. In FY25, the airline recorded a revenue of ₹80,803 crore.