Ukraine’s hellfire is intensifying the Kremlin’s fuel crisis

Ukraine continues to inflict deadly damage on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and the tempo is accelerating.

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Ukraine has hit 16 out of Russia's 38 refineries.

(REUTERS)

The concerted Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other parts of Russia’s fuel-distribution system began in August, and the number of strikes is rising from two or three a week to four or five. Soon they will be daily. In the past week or so, Ukraine has badly damaged a big oil export terminal at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, a refinery complex in Bashkortostan (over 1,300km from Ukraine), and a pumping station in Chuvashia, 1,000km away. A major refinery in Yaroslavl was hit on October Ist, but the Russians claim this was “technical”, and not caused by a drone attack.

On September 25th Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, referring to the wider “DeepStrike” campaign that has struck 85 “high-value” targets in less than two months, said: “The capabilities of the enemy’s military-industrial complex have been significantly reduced; we can sec this on the battlefield.

But while General Syrsky pointed to attacks on military infrastructure and weapons factories, itis the unrelenting focus on refineries which is doing most to change the narrative about the war, even appearing to help change Donald Trump's mind about Ukraine's prospects.

Atthe end of August, Reuters reported that about 17% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity had been at least temporarily taken out. That figure now is certainly higher. Some unconfirmed reports suggest that as much as-40% of it has been affected with about 20% down at any one time. That represents a loss ofmore than Im barrels a day according to Energy Aspects, a research group.

Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre cautions that the numbers are dynamic because most facilities can be repaired. However, he acknowledges that what is happening now is on a different scale from previous campaigns.