'Q2 GDP surprise to signal robust growth'

There is a “wide consensus" supported by economic forecasts that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter will turn out to be better than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection of 6.5%, an article in the central bank’s November bulletin said on Thursday.

- Shayan Ghosh

The estimates for the second quarter (Q2) of FY24 are set to be released at the end of this month.

The article said that since the RBI’s projections factored in a turnaround in the momentum of activity into expansion in Q2, if the consensus turns out to be true, it would imply a stronger pace of activity than projected.

India’s economy expanded 7.8% in the first three months of the financial year and RBI governor Shaktikanta Das recently expressed confidence in the domestic economy. “Looking at the momentum of economic activity—a few early data points have come in—I expect Q2 GDP numbers which will come at the end of November in all probability will surprise on the upside," Das said on 31 October.