How Trump's Policy Blitzkrieg Is Likely to Impact India's Economy

On balance, his disruptions are more an opportunity than a threat but we must chart a careful path to maximize our gains

- SUDIPTO MUNDLE

From the very day of his second appointment as US President, Donald Trump has unleashed a blitzkrieg of executive orders which have turned many US policies on their head, sacked large numbers of government staff and disrupted governance systems. These disruptions are severely impacting the US, but are also reverberating throughout the world. It is an unrestrained and unprecedented display of raw power by the most powerful man in the world. How are these disruptions likely to affect India? Three disruptive moves in particular need to be taken into consideration in this regard—on immigration, trade and tariff policy, and foreign policy.

Attacking immigration was Trump's first major move. He had harped on this issue in his election campaign. In addition to blocking illegal immigrants through the southern US border with Mexico, and deporting illegal immigrants already in the country, he may drastically restrict immigration even through legal channels, including the H-1B visa route. Deportation is a tragic outcome for illegal Indian migrants who had paid huge sums and borne great hardship to reach the US. A tightening up of H-1B visa provisions is also an unfortunate setback for aspiring legal migrants. However, neither of these policies is a major issue for the Indian economy.