Govt eyes post-cut GST revenue surge

FinMin expects Nov GST receipts growth to rebound to 10%

- Gireesh Chandra Prasad

India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue is poised for a strong recovery in November, limiting the impact of the September rate cuts on state and central revenues, according to internal government assessments. The Centre expects the revenue buoyancy to sustain, thanks to the robust demand in the economy and a growing tax base.

Gross GST receipts grew at an average 9.8% annual rate in the April-September period, but slowed sharply to 4.6% in October. However, the growth is expected to rebound to a robust 10% in November, two people familiar with the government's assessment said. This would push monthly revenue receipts to approximately ₹2 trillion.

"The October revenue collection of ₹1.96 trillion reflected both the trend of people holding back high-value purchases initially in September and subsequently making purchases to benefit from the rate cuts in the final days of the month,” one of the two people said. “People knew from 3 September that tax cuts would be effective from 22 September.”

GST trend to support the fiscal deficit target of 4.4% for FY26.