Four elections and a rate cut: The world is in for an exciting 2024

Known unknowns and events in the political as well as economic arenas could combine in multiple ways to yield surprises

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This column appears on the second working day of the new year, and, as is customary, it tries to discern the path ahead. Amid the known unknowns, some developments look almost certain. It is fair to say that the world will continue to be influenced by geopolitical shifts and conflicts in the first quarter of 2024.

The war in Ukraine and humanitarian crisis in the Levant look like spilling over to the new year and casting a shadow over the world economy. The US economy might finally buck a recession, the Eurozone will continue its search for the elusive growth sauce and global central banks might finally loosen their hold on monetary policy. This much seems a done deal. But it will be domestic politics that will hold the key to global economic prospects in 2024.