Demography is destiny: It's a law that cannot be shaken

Policies must aim not to control fertility but promote human capital, innovation and prosperity

- AJIT RANADE

Earlier this year, Singapore's government noted with alarm that the country's total fertility rate (TFR) in 2023 had fallen to a record 0.97. TFR is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. For several years, it has been falling, while the share of the elderly, those above 65 years, has been rising. From 11.7% in 2013, it hit 19.1% in 2023 and is expected to reach 24.1% in 2030. In Singapore, the pendulum of population policy has swung from one extreme to the other. In 1966, a Family Planning and Population Board was set up to encourage birth control. There was a "Stop-at-Two" programme, with disincentives for families having more than two children. Sterilization was rewarded. By the early 1980s, the government became pro-natalist, launching a "Have-three-or-more" campaign in 1987. Its population control policies had been too successful and needed reversing. But despite baby-bonus schemes and cash incentives, the fertility rate keeps falling. Hence, immigration policy is being relaxed. Roughly 40% of Singaporeans are immigrants and 39% are non-citizens. The current policy seems to aim simply to stabilize the population rather than raise or lower the TFR.

Just like Singapore, almost all major countries have tried social engineering and population control. As per the United Nations 2021 World Population Policies report, nearly two-thirds of all countries had policies on fertility: 69 governments to reduce, 55 countries to increase and 19 to maintain it. Half the countries trying to reduce TFR are developing, implying that they think that high TFR hurts economic development.