HOW BIG IS THE PRIZE OF REOPENING RUSSIA?

The Kremlin is promising $12 trillion-worth of deals to Donald Trump's administration

- The Economist

File photo of oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Arctic Russia might yield nearly 50 billion exploitable barrels, starting in the 2030s.

(REUTERS)

Over the past year two parallel sets of talks have been held about ending the war in Ukraine. American-led negotiations with Russia have produced proposal after proposal but no agreement on territory or security guarantees. Meanwhile, other envoys from the Kremlin and the White House have been discussing business. Volodymyr Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, says Russia has promised deals worth $12trn to America in return for sanctions relief; one insider reckons a package has already been agreed on. In Europe fears are rising that President Donald Trump could force Ukraine into crippling concessions by June - his latest deadline for peace - to chase gold in Russia.

Promises of enrichment have long lain at the heart of Vladimir Putin's strategy. Before the Russian president met Mr Trump in August, The Economist understands, a note was drafted for Russia's National Security Council explaining how to sell "the Greatest Deal" to Mr Trump. Since last April Kirill Dmitriev, who runs a Russian state fund, has met Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump's special envoy, at least nine times. Individuals close to the Trump family have been in talks to acquire stakes in Russian energy assets. America has been offered deals for Arctic oil and gas, rare-earth mines, a nuclear-powered data centre and a tunnel under the Bering Strait. Both sides stand to benefit. Russia is suffering from low oil prices and stricter sanctions. America's president wants results before the November midterm elections.