Welcome to a world of de-escalation and new normals

Actions once unthinkable are finding acceptance but is there a limit to how much change is okay?

- NARAYAN RAMACHANDRAN

The month of April brought with it unilateral actions, escalations and (depending on your point of view) provocations. This has been true across the world in areas as varied as trade, terrorism and security. Fortunately, this has been followed by de-escalation and 'climb-downs' in many instances. But the process has left the door open for the setting of 'new normals' that just some time ago may have been unthinkable.

The term 'new normal' grew fashionable as a consequence of the covid pandemic. Looking ahead at that time, a Pew Survey showed that a plurality of experts believed that the pandemic would: 1) worsen inequality; 2) increase the influence and power of big tech firms; 3) multiply the spread of misinformation; and 4) fan the flames of authoritarianism. Perhaps an overall environment favouring new normals was born then.

Take the case of international trade. President Donald Trump, representing that beacon of free trade that hitherto was America, imposed wide and deep tariffs of such a magnitude that the world was taken by shock. He imposed tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, upending convention. He then singled out China for punitive tariffs of 125%. The New York Times carried a copy of a customs bill for a batch of T-shirts shipped from China to the US in April that amounted to a total tariff of 185%. This figure is made up of a 125% 'reciprocal tariff,' a 20% fentanyl-related punitive tariff, a 7.5% carry-over Section 301 tariff from Trump's first term, and a 32% base tariff rate on garments.