China's 'paper satellites' can't match SpaceX's constellation

Beijing's ambition of over 200,000 orbiters is just a pie in the sky

- DAVID FICKLING

Forbital space is the 21st century's high seas, China looks to be preparing an armada.

Government plans submitted late last year to the United Nations’ International Telecommunications Union (ITU) promise a fleet of 203,000 satellites to be deployed by the mid-2030s. That would dwarf the ambitions of Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos: SpaceX’s Starlink network has nearly 10,000 orbiters so far, while Amazon’s Leo constellation will top out at just 3,232. It sounds like an alarming plan for the control of space. But while there’s undoubtedly an orbit grab underway 600km above the ground, it’s one that Musk is winning. China’s plans are best understood not as a genuine expansion, but a bid to hobble the frontrunner.

The number of objects orbiting the earth is rising at breakneck speed. Two key innovations—reusable rockets and the development of resilient and lightweight components that enable smaller craft—have slashed launch costs. Since 2020, the number of orbiters has quadrupled to more than 16,000. SpaceX alone is adding more than 2,000 satellites a year.