India isn't a global swing power but should aim to become one

Here's the power test: Both China and the US should need India's support to pursue their interests

- NITIN PAI

The past six months have shown that India is not a swing power. We could not deter China from providing active assistance to Pakistan during a military conflict. Our weight proved insufficient to dissuade the US from singling us out with atrocious tariffs. We have been shown the limitations of India's national power relative to the US and China. We must recognize this hard reality for what it is if we have to change course.

First, let us get the political blame game out of the way. We are where we are because the substance of our foreign policy for the past two decades has been consistent, even if the decorations were different. The trend has been towards closer partnership with the US, wariness of China and an enthusiasm for plurilateral arrangements, alongside the de-prioritization of subcontinental matters and the developing world. This became the dominant view of India's strategic establishment—both in New Delhi and elsewhere in the country—punctuated only by pro-Russian views that became stronger after Russia's President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Whatever partisans might now say, there has been a bipartisan consensus on India's geopolitical strategy since the turn of the century.

In a world where the US is still the strongest global power and China is its challenger, it remains in India's interests for the gap between the two to remain large for as long as possible.