Why 2025 Is a Do-or-Die Year for Climate Action

The next four years of the Trump presidency will represent a litmus test for climate action across the world

- Bibek Bhattacharya

Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the Paris climate accords was a decision foretold. Trump has never been shy of airing his deep climate denialism, so it was clear as soon as the US presidential results were announced last November that the US would give up on climate action. However, just withdrawing from the UN process is one thing. What is equally worrying is the fact that several key US climate institutions—from NASA to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)—might well be forced to curtail their work.

As many analysts have pointed out, the nature of US federalism means that many progressive (and wealthy) US states—such as California—can continue to be a part of the global climate alliance, but without the presence of the US as a nation, the advantages are limited. In fact, I would go as far as to say that with the Trump dispensation, the global fight against climate change has entered a period of serious destabilization.

Why is this a possible scenario? The next four years of Trump are going to coincide with a crucial make-or-break period which will determine whether humanity succeeds or fails in keeping global heating to within a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius (above pre-industrial levels), by 2100. Failure to do so would be catastrophic, not just in the distant future, but also in the near term, perhaps as early as the 2040s.