Shifty Trade Winds

India must recalibrate before the economic web gets gnarly. Focus on US tariffs and threats might see it miss hidden headwinds, hurting growth, business and jobs

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Other than the US, India's exports to other trading destinations have also flattened in the first five months of the ongoing financial year

Let's begin with ancient mythology and move on to modern-day economics. In the Mahabharata, a prince faced a challenge—that of stringing a powerful bow and shooting an arrow straight into the eye of a golden fish, visible only by its reflection in a bowl of water.

Such was the single-minded focus of Pandava prince Arjun on this task that he nonchalantly released the arrow and sent it whistling dead-centre into the target. The occasion was a swayamvar and Arjun's focus on the task won him and (eventually) his four brothers a common wife, Draupadi.

Times have changed. So much that single-minded focus on only one task will not only not win you a wife, it might even cost you the one you do have... especially if you take your eye off the projectiles headed your way from unseen quarters. A naked example is India's external trade scenario after the United States imposed tariffs and followed it up with other economic assaults. With 50-per cent tariffs, the prospect of an additional 25-per cent levies, a $100,000-fee on new H-1B visa petitions and proposals in the HIRE Act to penalize US firms hiring global talent, India has its hands full.

Caught up as it is in this US web, India may be unaware of the other slugs headed its way. For one, exports to other trading nations have stagnated in the first five months of the ongoing fiscal (April-August 2025). As per official data, the cumulative value of exports in this period rose only modestly, by 2.52 per cent ($184.13 billion, against $179.60 billion last year). On paper, this appears benign. But the composition and destination-wise weakness tell a troubling story.