Pulse Asia explains discrepancies between surveys, election results

As partial results continue to come in following the elections on May 12, Pulse Asia President Ronald Holmes offered insights into the factors that may have contributed to the differences between the firm's pre-election surveys and the actual vote count.

- By ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

According to Holmes, late shifts in campaign strategies, voter turn-out, and undecided voters making final decisions closer to election day likely played a role in the outcome.

He pointed specifically to the case of former senator Bam Aquino, whose performance exceeded expectations.

Pulse Asia's final pre-election survey, conducted from April 20 to 24, placed Aquino within the 11th to 18th ranking range. However, partial voting results show him in the second spot.

"One explanation is what they did, what former senator Bam Aquino did in the last three weeks," Holmes said in an interview with ABS-CBN on Tuesday, May 13. "What did Bam do to bring him up to that level?"

"The number that we are seeing right now, [about 19 million], is lower than what you normally expect the number to be, but I think that is quite safe on his part," he said.

Holmes added that based on Pulse Asia's internal projections, the candidate who lands in the 12th spot should receive about 15 million votes.