PH growth under threat, BMI warns

Fitch Solutions' unit BMI has sharply lowered its 2026 Philippine growth forecast to well below the government's sixto seven-percent target, citing an expected slowdown in remittances, a weaker trade balance, muted investment sentiment, and downside risks to government spending stemming from the flood control fiasco.

- DERCO ROSAL

"We expect remittance growth to slow due to tighter US [United States] immigration policy and a one-percent remittance tax on transfers from the US starting in 2026," BMI said in a commentary published on Thursday, Oct. 23.

"A slowdown in remittances will weigh on domestic consumption, which will have an outsized impact on growth given the domestically driven economy," BMI explained.

Against this backdrop, BMI has slashed its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.2 percent, one-percentage-point (ppt) lower than the 6.2 percent it projected previously.

If realized, this would also fall below this year's growth goal of 5.5 to 6.5 percent, and 2024's actual pace of 5.7 percent.