PH growth under pressure—AMRO

Both public and private investment in the Philippines are being dampened by Washington's tariff policy and local corruption controversies, raising the risk that the nation's economic expansion will miss the government's targets this year and next.

- By DERCO ROSAL

According to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office's (AMRO) 2025 Annual Consultation Report on the Philippines, published on Monday, Nov. 24, the Philippine economy is expected to expand more slowly in 2025 and 2026, down from earlier expectations in October.

AMRO reduced its 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.2 percent from 5.6 percent earlier, and to 5.3 percent in 2026 from 5.5 percent previously.

Despite growing above five percent, both of AMRO's expectations fall below the yearly targets of at least 5.5 percent this year and at least six percent next year. If realized, they would also be slower than the 5.7 percent growth recorded last year and below pre-pandemic levels.

"Private investment and exports face headwinds from external uncertainties due to the US tariff policy, while public investment will be dampened by flood control project controversies," the report read.

Partially offsetting these risks is the steady expansion in private consumption that AMRO expects.