AMRO cuts PH growth outlook

Singapore-based regional surveillance organization ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised downward its growth projections for the Philippines for 2025 and 2026, following the worse-than-expected slowdown to four percent-the lowest in 4.5 years-in the third quarter of last year.

- BY RICARDO M. AUSTRIA

According to AMRO's quarterly update of its flagship ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) released on Wednesday, Jan. 21, the Philippine economy is now expected to expand at a slower pace of 5.2 percent in 2025 and 5.3 percent in 2026, down from its October 2025 forecasts of 5.6 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.

"The reason for this downward revision was a fairly weak third quarter of 2025 outturn," AMRO chief economist Dong He said during an online briefing.

"The picture for the Philippines' economy is that it has been quite steady, but there are some headwinds on the investment side. Private consumption has been quite firm, and we'll continue to believe that private consumption will remain firm," He added.

As for inflation, AMRO maintained its 2026 forecast at 3.2 percent, unchanged from its October estimate.

He stressed that private investment hinges on strong investor confidence, noting that public investment has also been affected by controversies, including issues surrounding corruption in flood control projects.

"When we think about the Philippines' economy, it has been growing steadily," He said, while cautioning that growth has yet to return to the faster pace seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.