US oil output up under Trump, but not much

Never before has a president swept into the White House pledging such a rapid expansion of oil and gas drilling in the United States as Donald Trump.

- Lisa Friedman

US President Donald Trump with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia during an arrival ceremony at the White House last month. So far, the president's energy strategy has yielded more pollution but only modest increases in production and no major price drops, analysts say. — Kenny Holston/The New York Times

(Kenny Holston/The New York Times)

But nearly a year since Trump ordered his administration to unearth the nation’s vast reserves of petroleum — or, as he called it, the “liquid gold under our feet” — analysts said fossil fuel production wasn’t much higher than the record levels that existed during the Biden administration.

The price of a barrel of oil has tumbled from roughly $75 when Trump took office to below $60. His tariffs have raised the cost of steel and other commodities that oil companies require for wells and other equipment. Oil production is up, but largely because of improved efficiency, and it has not translated into more jobs for either the industry or the overall economy.

Prices at the pump dipped briefly earlier this year but nowhere near by half, as Trump repeatedly promised on the campaign trail. And the administration has taken other actions, like ordering that expensive coal-burning power plants remain open, canceling permits for offshore wind projects and encouraging exports of natural gas overseas, that in combination may have helped to raise electricity and natural gas prices for American consumers.

“The ‘Drill, baby, drill’ agenda has not materialized,” said Kenneth B. Medlock, an energy economist at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston.

And yet the uncertain investment climate for fossil fuels comes as the industry’s political influence has soared this year.